Microsoft Hopes to Crush Google - Is Google More Important Than Windows?
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This is likely where Microsoft feels most threatened. Google is not replacing Windows anytime soon, as Steve Ballmer said, but it is reducing the significance of it. Google and Yahoo both draw a person’s attention away from their personal computer and give users an interface with information and applications. Operating system choice could become increasingly less important; Google works equally well on Apple and Windows. Internet applications are becoming the computer user’s interface. If all programs that define user experience work just as well across platforms, Windows users will definitely not feel locked in at all. Just as you don’t think about the technical details of your watch, users may become less concerned with those of their local computer.
In the long term, this could be the beginning of recentralizing where computing is done, moving from independent PCs to online services. Eventually, Windows could mean little more to a user than a set of drivers and a web browser, a tool to get to Google and integrate with it. The user may someday hold and access all their personal information and frequently used applications online in web portals.
While this is speculation, the foundation for such a transition is undeniably under our noses. As internet applications and personal computers become more and more integrated, the potential only grows. Microsoft definitely sees the benefit in establishing itself before it’s left too far behind established online companies.
So far, it looks like Microsoft is following the tried and true method of copying competitors. Soon we may see them seduce users into using MSN Search by integrating it with all aspects of upcoming Windows Longhorn. This would be similar to how the company established Internet Explorer in Windows 98 and subsequently destroyed Netscape.
But Microsoft cannot kill Google eaily. As things are progressing, by the time Longhorn comes out, most people will probably have a Google user ID that has many purposes. Without an easy way to transfer user data to equal Microsoft services, they will be moderately locked into Google. Sure, they can make a new ID with MSN Search but they lose their familiar homepage, already personalized search results, all their Gmail they’ve been saving, and any other new services Google introduces. Netscape didn’t have this leverage when they went under, and casual users didn’t lose anything by switching.
Google is in a vulnerable position; as a web service, the barriers that keep users from switching to other services are much lower than those, say, blocking people from converting from Windows to Linux or OS X (where there may be training and new hardware needed). This also means MSN Search will be in a vulnerable position, and it’s not that hard to change a browser’s homepage from MSN to Google. Ultimately, the company to come out on top will hopefully be the one that brings the most innovation to computing technologies. Though, most likely, there will be "multiple winners" as Schmidt suggested.
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