While advertisers and newspapers stand to benefit from the program if it is successful, there are certain risks. Perhaps the greatest risk I've seen mentioned is that, if it does succeed, it will make Google stronger, giving the company an even more dominant position. If you're scratching your head wondering how this new service could make Google more dominant in the search engine market, you can be forgiven. This move isn't really about search anymore; it's about marketing.
Take it from Internet advertising analyst Greg Sterling. "Inevitably, the Internet will be used as a platform for buying advertising in all forms of media," he notes. It's hard to beat the Internet's advantages when it comes to purchasing ad space: it's fast, it's flexible, most companies who would be interested in advertising have access to it (as do most companies that would be interested in carrying ads), and so on.
Indeed, according to Saul Hansell of the New York Times, that's a factor in Google's long term plans. "For Google, the test [of the newspaper advertising program] is an important step to the company's audacious long-term goal: to build a single computer system through which advertisers can promote their products in any medium." Such a system, once set up, could leave newspapers in the same position as many AdSense publishers: beholden to Google for ad income.
It seems unlikely that newspapers would allow this to happen, but in the long run they may not have much choice. "Every day in the newspaper we have a fair amount of space we set aside for ads that we are unable to fill," Youngman pointed out. "Google says they can bring us thousands of small advertisers for space we would otherwise fill with house ads, and we say 'Great.'"
But will it actually work, given Google's stumbles with magazine ads? Google CEO Eric Schmidt made an observation back in June that should be kept in mind: "People forget, even inside our company, that the model that is working so very well for us today [online] took a couple of years to get really right. My guess is that for each of these new major media initiatives, we'll have a few cycles of trying to find the right combination that really takes off." It might not take off today or tomorrow, but you can expect to see Google keep trying until it gets it right.