Click Fraud Still an Expensive Problem - Transparency Issues
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But the lack of transparency, and the suspicion it breeds, seems to be one of the biggest issues in combating click fraud. Ghosemajumder said that "the real power of our detection systems lies in the fact that we analyze hundreds of different factors, the majority of which are secret." As Forbes correctly points out, revealing too much about these metrics might help criminals engage in click fraud more successfully, while revealing too little about them will make advertisers suspicious.
It isn't just Google who is hiding metrics. Tom Cuthbert also gave Forbes an interview. He explained that independent auditors like Click Forensics have access to several kinds of data that Google doesn't have. "Most importantly, we see what happens on an advertiser's site when a click leaves Google's page and goes to the landing page. We see how deep the clicker goes and whether the click converts into a sale," Cuthbert said, describing such data as "really critical in exposing click fraud."
And why doesn't Google have this data for analysis? Cuthbert explained that advertisers don't trust Google enough to hand over the data because "Google's pricing system is a black box...based on many factors that are built into Google's algorithm, which is constantly changing." Advertisers are afraid that keyword prices will go up if Google ever finds out the exact value of a click, particularly the conversion rate. It's a sort of vicious circle: Google won't share data with advertisers, so advertisers won't share data with Google.
For its part, Google says it is opening up a little and even offering more traffic quality tools than any of the other major search engines. In June, Google launched IP exclusion and Performance Placement Reports. The former lets users tell Google what IP addresses they want to avoid with their ads, while the latter lets advertisers see which sites are performing the best among those displaying their ads. This knowledge lets advertisers use various site exclusion and targeting tools to tackle click fraud.
The problem, however, is ultimately Google's - and perceptions matter. If advertisers truly believe they are not getting their money's worth, they'll go elsewhere - and crooked sites and honest sites alike will lose out on the potential ad revenue. In a situation involving a lot of money, relatively little trust, and real fraud, having a genuinely disinterested independent party - outside of Google, the advertisers, and perhaps even the current crop of auditors - is starting to sound like a good idea after all.
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